US dollar
›Still the cleanest case on the board
We are buying the US dollar for three reasons, and they do not all pull the same way. One of them is already backed by something that has happened. The heaviest: Rate advantage after inflation — The real rate gap is still doing the work and has not started to close. One reason sits in the middle. Positioning is no longer one-sided. Worth tracking, but it does not push the call either way. Pulling the other way. Activity has rolled over, but the labour market has not followed it yet. That is what holds this at medium confidence rather than higher.
A soft print at the front end.
Core services below 3% for two prints
- Threshold:
- 3.0%
- Horizon:
- two months
The things we compare on every currency
same four scored on every currency, one of them in the board scoreWhy we lean this way
3 reasons, 1 working now. A reason that is not yet active is worth watching, not yet worth paying for.
- 1
Rate advantage after inflation
Reason to ownWorking nowheaviest · weight 0.4 of 5The real rate gap is still doing the work and has not started to close.
- 2Reason to sellNot active yetweight 0.3 of 5
Activity has rolled over, but the labour market has not followed it yet.
- 3Pulls neither wayQuietweight 0.2 of 5
Positioning is no longer one-sided.
Central bank tracker
The rate, the next decision and the market’s pricing are live. What the bank says has not reached us for this currency yet, so it is a frozen copy taken on 10 Sep 2026 and will not change until the feed delivers.
- Rate right now
- 3.75%
- Federal Reserve
- Last decision
- Held
- 29 Jul 2026Frozen copy · taken 10 Sep 2026
- Next decision
- 5 Feb 2026
- In 12 daysFederal Reserve
- Where rates go in a year
- 3.25%
- −50bp over twelve months82% of it priced
What the bank itself is saying
Frozen copy · taken 10 Sep 2026Leans hold · as of 19 Aug 2026
leaning toward holding, with a hawkish tilt reinforced by an intact labour picture and a priced path that keeps firming rather than easing
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at the end of July, with three of its own regional officials wanting to raise them instead. One of the Fed's own governors spoke afterward about the value of real-world data-gathering without addressing the jobs report, the shift toward inflation-expectations-driven bond yields, or this week's upcoming inflation report directly. The market's own year-ahead expectation for the Fed firmed slightly this week, a factory-prices report came in a bit hot at the headline level while the core reading was soft, and a piece of bank research arguing for a stronger dollar was set aside as an opinion rather than a confirmed fact.
Nothing new from the bank since this week’s news: the message stands, but it has not been tested against it.
Last decisionHeld 3.50-3.75% (a RANGE) -- 2026-07-29, 9-3, three dissents favouring a hike
- The Fed has not addressed the breakeven-led shift in the real-yield decomposition or the mixed PPI print, since it has not spoken formally since its own decision.
- The Fed has not commented on the pending September CPI print or the FOMC decision due 2026-09-16, since neither has occurred yet.
Does the market believe them?
Frozen copy · taken 10 Sep 2026The strong US jobs picture and a slightly firmer year-ahead rate outlook continue to support the dollar. The new evidence that rising bond yields are now mostly about inflation fears rather than genuine real returns doesn't contradict the Fed's cautious stance -- if anything it explains why the Fed can afford to hold rather than move urgently in either direction.
Reconstructed from the curve; our own figure, not a vendor’s.
What moved USD today
From our own news tape.
- inflationUSD
Core inflation cools for a third month as services give way
The part the bank said it was waiting on finally moved.
Why it matters for the USD: The cut comes forward a meeting on this.
What it means for the calls: A softer front end, and a weaker currency with it.
- inflationUSD
Core inflation cools for a third month as services give way
The part the bank said it was waiting on finally moved.
Why it matters for the USD: The cut comes forward a meeting on this.
What it means for the calls: A softer front end, and a weaker currency with it.
- inflationUSD
Core inflation cools for a third month as services give way
The part the bank said it was waiting on finally moved.
Why it matters for the USD: The cut comes forward a meeting on this.
What it means for the calls: A softer front end, and a weaker currency with it.
What lands next for USD
Times are UTC. A policy decision is dated, not timed.
Today
- 13:30Core inflationThe front end prices the next decision off it.cons 3.0%High impact
